Google can’t decide if the web is thriving – or dying

In a Friday court filing, Google’s lawyers wrote:

• “The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline.”

That line directly contradicts what Google executives and representatives have been saying for months.

• CEO Sundar Pichai (May, The Verge interview): “When we crawl, when we look at the number of web pages available to us, that number has gone up by 45% in the last two years alone. … I think people are producing a lot of content and I see consumers consuming a lot of content.”
• Nick Fox, VP of Search (May, AI Inside podcast): “From our point of view, the web is thriving.”
• John Mueller, Search Advocate: “Finding a balance is hard, there’s so much hype, but seeing so many folks trying to make sites more visible in AI, it’s clear that the web is thriving.”

Yet in court, Google is saying the web is already collapsing – all to further its argument against being forced to divest its ad business.

Why we care. Google can’t have it both ways. Either the web is thriving (as execs tell the press and public) or it’s declining (as lawyers tell a judge). If it’s declining, publishers’ fears about AI eating their traffic are vindicated. If it’s thriving, why is Google arguing the opposite in court?

The full quote. It appears on Page 5 of this document:

• “The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline and Plaintiffs’ divestiture proposal would only accelerate that decline, harming publishers who currently rely on open-web display advertising revenue.”

The bigger picture. Google is under fire for how AI Overviews is changing search and the web’s business model. Pichai insisted the company will still send more traffic to publishers.

• Last month, in a heavily criticized blog post, Google’s head of Search Elizabeth Reid claimed AI is making search better, traffic to sites is “relatively stable,” and the web is entering its “most exciting era yet.” This while offering no facts or stats. The blog post was universally derided by search marketers.

The contradiction: Publicly, Google positions itself as a defender and champion of the open web. Privately, in court, it’s painting the web as a sinking ship.